Oppostocks... are you investing to take advantage of COVID-19?

"Manwich - now Keto-Friendly" (manwich) 04/29/2020 at 17:27 • Filed to: None

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I just posted about Tesla and their surprise profit report. I sold TSLA because I thought that in the high $400 range, certainly it wouldn’t go much higher than that in the short term, eh? LOL

And I used some of that money to invest in Ford... which promptly went down.

I forgot who, but someone here on Oppo mentioned !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! ... which I researched myself and decided to put some moolah into . It has done very well for me so far.

I also put some money into !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! (an ETF for consumer discretionary goods).

Since airlines and transportation stocks have gotten their share prices destroyed, I decided to put some money in !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

And lastly... my most aggressive/risky investment... !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! ... which is an ETF that does oil futures .

For car-related stocks, I’m mainly watching !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! right now. The stock is cheap and if it’s one company I’m sure will weather this storm, it’s Ford.

And I like what they have been doing with Lincoln lately and I think the Bronco and Mach E will be hits. The F-Series and the Transit are still leading their segments as well.

I may decide to put some moolah into Ford when deciding to take profits in other stuff I have money in.

And that’s the challenge I face now... deciding when to take some profits in what and not do it too soon like I did with Tesla.

Here’s a race car made with moolah for your time:

DipodomysDeserti > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 17:59

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I’m not into financial stuff, but I have cousins and uncles that work in and around Wall St. Isn’t this form of investing more like gambling than investing? You’re basically trying to make a buck off the chance a stock price will go up? How much research goes into a strategy like this?

I’ll wait for someone like Patrick Bateman to chime in.

Azrek > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:01

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AMD stock. They are in the new Playstation and Xbox as their primary CPU.

I bought it at 18 and it is now around 50 something with big upside.

Mid Engine > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:01

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I bought Berkshire Hathaway B stock, Buffet is sitting on a mountain of cash and over the next little while will get active in value investing. 

Future next gen S2000 owner > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:02

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I should do that. I’ll see if I can convince the missus to let me play with some rainy day money.

jimz > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:03

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nope, it’s too much like gambling to me.  

Mid Engine > Azrek 04/29/2020 at 18:07

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AMD has been in the Playstation and Xbox forever, the next gen consoles will feature a new SOC but fundamentally their position in gaming is unchanged. Incidentally, I know the CEO personally. 

My bird IS the word > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:15

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What source/software do you use for online trading? Looking to get into it.

Chariotoflove > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:18

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Starred for the cool car.

I don’t invest in individual stocks, but rather funds. I have a conservative spread that has done pretty well recovering from last month’s plunge. I use Vanguard funds, and my work ORP is in Fidelity funds. 

Mid Engine > Azrek 04/29/2020 at 18:19

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amd-has-only-one-question-still-lingering-about-covid-19-effects-2020-04-28

Lisa indicates softness coming in consumer items, where AMD is doing well is in cloud datacenters (taking share from Intel). Also, the gaming business has very low margins . Yes, I work in semiconductors :)

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > DipodomysDeserti 04/29/2020 at 18:21

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“How much research goes into a strategy like this?”

In my case, quite a bit. For example, one thing I did is see what these funds are actually invested in. And in the case of UCO, looking into which exact commodity contracts they have and when those contracts mature. If they had contracts that were maturing next month or July, I would have taken a pass as I believe things won’t start coming back to normal that soon.

I’d say it’s a lot more involved than just pure gambling where you win a lot or lose it all on a given decision. The stock investing I do is not a black/white win/lose situation like gambling is.

Gambling doesn’t appeal to me... too much based on luck and not enough can be influenced by thinking/analysis.

There is a lot more thinking/analysis that goes into it from my point of view. Sure there is an element of luck, but it’s a much smaller part of the picture compared to going to the casino.

I did well on Tesla, but I could have done better had I hung on for longer. So I made money, just not as much as I could have.

But that’s okay. It’s important not to get too greedy. Though in hindsight, I should have sold half and kept the other half just on the principle that I like Tesla and think they have a bright future.

With Ford, I got in too early and lost some money. Not a huge amount though. I decided to sell because I decided that these other stocks I mentioned have a better risk/reward ratio.

My reasoning with these stocks is that the current situation is temporary. It’s not a question of if it will pass, but when. And when it does, demand for energy products, consumer discretionary stuff and transportation-related stuff should eventually get back to where we were at the beginning of the year.

Also note that I’m not doing this with my retirement savings.

themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles > Azrek 04/29/2020 at 18:26

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I sold my AMD after the earnings call started a slide, and threw that cash into SASOL which them promptly went up a buck a share.....at just 4.50$/share. Was pretty nice. But I might get back in if it recovers in a bit and I can turn that into a bit of profit in the interim.

I’m into a bunch of biotech stocks right now too. Mostly Viking Theraputics, nd I got into Inovio a while ago, made some cash on the first spike, got out before the crash and got back in on the latest upswing. 

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:28

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I buy old datsuns and keep them forever, 11/10 might pay off. 

f86sabre > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:28

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I bought some stock on the day, well one of the days, everything tanked. I got some shares of Tesla, Royal Dutch Shell and Disney. You already talked about Tesla. I don’t have a bunch of shares, that shit is expensive, but it’s nice to see it bounce back from the $425 that I bought it at. Shell  has come back a little, but I expect it will come back more over time. The Dutch are in this for the long haul. I got Disney around $90.

Now before anyone thinks that I’m a big winner, I have a bunch of Delta stock that I get as part of my benefits package. That has taken a firm pounding from around $50 to where it is now.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Chariotoflove 04/29/2020 at 18:29

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Incidentally, all 4 things I’m invested are funds... Exchange Traded Funds.

Mind you the ones I picked are more aggressive leveraged funds that have a higher risk/reward ratio.

But for my retirement savings, like you, I’m in regular mutual funds.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Mid Engine 04/29/2020 at 18:30

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Yeah I’ve been watching Berkshire as well as Fairfax Financial as well.

Holding off on both for the time being.  But may be worth putting money in when I sell what I’m currently invested in.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Future next gen S2000 owner 04/29/2020 at 18:32

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Perhaps it’s something you can do together and come up a list of candidate stocks and get her thoughts before going forward with anything.

ranwhenparked > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:32

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I’m tempted to, but I also think I need to conserve cash in the event of prolonged unemployment. Also, any company that could potentially need a government bailout or CH11 at some point is an absolute non-starter, since shareholders would either be totally wiped out or heavily diluted under either.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > My bird IS the word 04/29/2020 at 18:38

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For info, I use marketwatch.com as well as the company websites of the given fund company .

For example, for GUSH, you can find the details here:

https://www.direxion.com/products/daily-sp-oil-gas-exp-prod-bull-3x-shares

As for online trading, I set up a TFSA brokerage account (the Canadian version of a “Roth 401K” account) with my bank. It’s convenient and I can use the same website/login to do my regular banking.

There are probably other brokerages that have lower trading costs... but that only matters if you do LOTS of trading... which I don’t do.

The nice thing about having my brokerage account as my TFSA is all capital gains and income is sheltered and tax free.

The only real downside is any losses are also sheltered and I can’t use them to reduce my income tax.

Mid Engine > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:39

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I had insider knowledge of Microsoft’s performance prior to the announcement today, enough that I coulda got myself in trouble. So I sat on the sidelines and watched the stock spike

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > Azrek 04/29/2020 at 18:49

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AMD is one of my best performing stocks. I got into individual stock investing in early 2018.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 04/29/2020 at 18:51

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If it’s an all original 240Z or a 510, it just might.

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 18:52

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Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time 04/29/2020 at 18:55

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Well I’d say they both went ‘zoom’, just one more than the other...

BeaterGT > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 19:00

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Luckily , I bought in at the 3/23 low and have been dollar cost averaging weekly in index funds . Wish I dumped more in but there was no telling how far things were falling with circuit breakers triggering.  With how top heavy the SP500 is and uncertain everything else is, I’m sitting mostly on the sidelines for now . I do have a separate account for individual picks, nothing noteworthy, but m ight gamble again when Q2 earnings start rolling in.

Mid Engine > My bird IS the word 04/29/2020 at 19:05

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My company uses Etrade for my RSU’s, so I also use Etrade for buying/selling individual stocks.

jminer > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 19:05

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I put some extra in during the past few weeks. Mostly big company type stocks like Airbus, Panazonic, Bayer and the like. Also bought a bunch of AMC shares a week ago at super-cheap prices.  Not too much on the auto side, as I think this is going to get worse for them still

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 19:06

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I’m investing in beer, wine and food.

facw > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 19:20

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I’ve but $22k into the market thus far. Planning on seeing if I can scrounge up another 10k or so to invest while still leaving me some cushion (I have reasons to expect I may be getting some surprise medical bills).

Nothing targeted though, just broad market index funds.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > My bird IS the word 04/29/2020 at 19:29

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I don’t trade much at all and just have a little play money in the market - I use Robinhood simply because it’s a very easy platform and there is no trading fee.

Initially tried it out because the founder is married to a friend, but didn’t really have a reason to not keep using it. Main pain in the butt is that it takes a few days for funds to show up in your account after you make a trade. 

VincentMalamute-Kim > DipodomysDeserti 04/29/2020 at 19:33

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Isn’t this form of investing more like gambling than investing?

Yup. I follow Warren Buffet and John Bogle of Vanguard’s advice.

This can be fun to do with discretionary money, though. It’s just l ike going to casinos knowing you’re spending money for entertainment.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > f86sabre 04/29/2020 at 19:44

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Yeah... now is not the time to sell the Delta stock.  Hang on to it and sell it in good times.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > ranwhenparked 04/29/2020 at 19:46

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That’s one thing I like about Tesla and Ford... you have Musk and the Ford family who have a BIG interest in not having their shares get wiped out in their respective companies .

ranwhenparked > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 19:58

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That’ s assuming they have still a choice in the matter, when it gets that bad

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > ranwhenparked 04/29/2020 at 20:02

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Well at the start of all of this, Ford had US$32 billion in cash... I’m very sure they’ll weather this storm. Many other companies will die before Ford dies.

Tesla doesn’t have nearly as much cash, but then again, they’re a lot smaller. And they are the one automaker best suited to survive this type of crises due to the way they already handle sales and delivery.

Tesla was much closer to death in the 2009-2012 time frame.

NKato > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 20:20

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I’m thinking about using some of my UI money on investments, but undecided.

Personally I’d buy stock in Gilead (COVID-19 treatment of remdesvir) and hold on Ford’s stock until they launch the Mustang Mach-E. I still think Ford should’ve branded that E-SUV as the Ford Falcon or something.

P.S. What do you use for trading? I’m trying to figure out what platforms I should get an account on.

Wobbles the Mind > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 20:33

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I did increase my weekly 401k contributions, which is only the   T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Index ($TBCIX).

I also rebalanced m y Roth IRA. It’s currently MSCI ($MSCI), Ferrari ($RACE) , Taiwan Semiconductor ($ TSM) , and American Express ($AXP) . There is still some Apple ($AAPL), Disney ($Dis), and Charles Schwab ($SCHW) in that portfolio too, but I haven’t contributed to   them since the end of January.

My regular brokerage account is purely MSCI ($MSCI) and Ferrari ($RACE), which I have been buying shares of as much as possible during the downturns . The other business I’m going to be adding   is Gladstone Commercial Corp. ($GOOD) starting in May.

ranwhenparked > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 20:34

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Yeah, but they also burned through about $8 billion in the first 30 days of the shutdown. If the current near-total economic shutdown and extreme social distancing keeps up all through summer, they will be in a precarious position by the fall.

Especially since they were already saying late last year that they needed to hold on to a minimum of $20 billion in emergency reserves to get through a recession, and that was for the expectation of an “ordinary” recession with unemployment peaking at around 10% or so. This one is already 2-3x worse than that, and we only just started. We’re heading into  depression territory now, which is much worse than anyone predicted last year when that $20 billion figure was created. 

f86sabre > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 20:59

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That’s the plan. I’m keeping the faith and working hard to get us to the good times. 

Mercedes Streeter > Azrek 04/29/2020 at 21:08

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AMD has been powering the Xbox since the Xbox One (2013) and Playstation since the PS4 (2013).

I’d say a lot of AMD’s meteoric rise can be attributed to cloud centers and  Ryzen processors being a tag team mate. Team Red!!!

Azrek > Mid Engine 04/29/2020 at 21:18

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Yes, it is unchanged yet different. As opposed to changing the Chip vendor for Nvidia or Intel, they remain with AMD. So their position is strengthened as they have constant income and purchases coming as most of these Gaming Systems have a shelf life of at least 5 years. 

404 - User No Longer Available > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 22:19

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The first round of crashes coincided with my tax refunds and incentive pay from work, so I used it to re balance my couch potato portfolios.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > NKato 04/29/2020 at 22:50

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I have a brokerage account with my bank... Scotiabank.  It works well enough for me.  I don’t do a massive amount of trading. 

Poor_Sh > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 22:58

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I’m spending all my extra money on buying toys entertainment for mental health. Though I did donate one month's mortgage amongst 2 food banks and the animal shelter I got my cat from. 

SPAMBot - Horse Doctor > Wobbles the Mind 04/29/2020 at 23:01

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I bought a few shares of race on one of the dips. I'm keeping an eye on it for future dips as well

SPAMBot - Horse Doctor > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/29/2020 at 23:09

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I wrote a check for the balance of my student loan in January and went on a decently expensive vacation at the beginning of March (which was cut short). All that is to say I didn’t have as much fun money laying around to throw at the market. I did put in as much as I could without touching my emergency fund, though. Plus I upped my 401k. I max that every year, but I’ll just contribute less towards the end of the year. Most notably, I bought Microsoft, Ferrari, and an oil stock or two. I’m an oil guy again (for the time being)  and can kinda see how companies are responding. Shit is rough right now, but it will eventually recover. My opinion on the matter is if I can buy at a 5 year low, and I feel the company will stay afloat, it's not a bad but. Just do not over leverage yourself doing it. I use a combination of Robinhood, schwab, vanguard, and T Rowe for my retirement thru work.

just-a-scratch > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/30/2020 at 01:32

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I have a history of bad stock choices. I’ll stick with my index funds.

Mid Engine > Azrek 04/30/2020 at 10:20

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There are technical reasons why they would not use NVIDIA (GPU) and/or Intel (CPU). AMD’s system-on-a-chip includes both multiple x86 cores along with GPU’s on- die as a monolithic solution. So, AMD had the gaming business for a long time and will keep their position, this isn’t additive.

In any event, AMD’s position in the cloud is far more important to the financial health of AMD (and in turn reflected in their stock price). As consumer purchases of computers and consoles crash in 2020  and likely all of next year, cloud will continue to grow. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/30/2020 at 10:48

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Help me understand GUSH. 

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/30/2020 at 11:40

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Start with reading  this info:

https://www.direxion.com/products/daily-sp-oil-gas-exp-prod-bull-3x-shares#

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 04/30/2020 at 11:44

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What’s the longest you would ever consider holding something like this? 

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/30/2020 at 13:42

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My timeline is maybe a year at most. And if triple my money or more, I will sell a portion to get back what I initially invested. And when oil gets back to the $40 range is when I would consider selling completely as things would be ‘back to normal enough’

I also suggest looking at the chart for DRIP... which is like GUSH, but on the “betting things will go down” side. With DRIP, you can see how it shot up as things crashed. But it went down as fast as it went up .

I expect GUSH to have similar behaviour.